Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240525 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 124.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 12.1 11.4 13.5 21.2 20.4 22.0 25.7 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 3.0 44.0 56.0 19.0 100.0 59.0 24.0 N U N N U F N U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 44.0 46.0 58.0 23.0 38.0 55.0 91.0 N N N N U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 85.0 89.0 N N N F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 22.0 30.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.9% 10.5% 7.7% 25kt / 24h 28.7% 60.6% 44.7% 30kt / 24h 16.4% 43.1% 29.7% 35kt / 24h 8.0% 43.1% 25.6% 40kt / 24h 7.2% 43.1% 25.2% 45kt / 36h 27.4% 72.0% 49.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 55.4% 27.7% 55kt / 48h 42.4% 51.4% 46.9% 70kt / 48h 24.6% 46.9% 35.7% 65kt / 72h 36.9% 55.3% 46.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.38 WP012024 240525 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 124.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 12.1 11.4 13.5 21.2 20.4 22.0 25.7 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 72.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 85.0 89.0 N N N U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 22.0 30.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%