Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240525 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.9 14.2 14.9 17.2 23.3 23.2 20.3 23.3 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 84.0 87.0 9.0 76.0 91.0 61.0 36.0 U N N U N F N U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 39.0 45.0 40.0 16.0 61.0 104.0 102.0 N N N N U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 80.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 20.0 20.0 46.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 7.2% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 20.7% 49.2% 35.0% 30kt / 24h 10.6% 30.6% 20.6% 35kt / 24h 4.0% 29.2% 16.6% 40kt / 24h 2.6% 29.2% 15.9% 45kt / 36h 17.4% 58.1% 37.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 36.5% 18.3% 55kt / 48h 34.8% 39.3% 37.0% 70kt / 48h 22.1% 30.0% 26.0% 65kt / 72h 50.2% 50.6% 50.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.74 WP012024 240525 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.9 14.2 14.9 17.2 23.3 23.2 20.3 23.3 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 80.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 20.0 20.0 46.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%