Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240525 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  16.3  16.0  12.7  19.1  17.0  17.3  16.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  11.0  22.0  58.0 102.0  63.0  75.0   9.0  N  U  U  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  14.0  16.0  36.0  52.0  80.0 121.0 105.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   7.0  11.0  15.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        5.8%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       14.2%       40.4%       27.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       24.7%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       24.4%       14.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       24.4%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.4%       52.2%       36.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.4%       15.7%
 55kt / 48h       36.5%       38.5%       37.5%
 70kt / 48h       18.8%       25.5%       22.2%
 65kt / 72h       44.3%       47.3%       45.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.68

 WP012024 240525 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  16.3  16.0  12.7  19.1  17.0  17.3  16.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   7.0  11.0  15.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%