Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240525 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 12.1 12.2 17.6 21.0 23.0 18.9 27.2 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 18.0 36.0 55.0 99.0 71.0 66.0 56.0 U U U N F N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 57.0 24.0 4.0 94.0 58.0 102.0 100.0 N N U U F N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 74.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 N N N N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 24.0 N N N N U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 7.0% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 16.8% 47.0% 31.9% 30kt / 24h 9.2% 31.8% 20.5% 35kt / 24h 5.8% 31.8% 18.8% 40kt / 24h 2.2% 31.4% 16.8% 45kt / 36h 18.9% 56.8% 37.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 36.8% 18.4% 55kt / 48h 34.6% 41.2% 37.9% 70kt / 48h 13.9% 27.6% 20.8% 65kt / 72h 41.0% 44.8% 42.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.70 WP012024 240525 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 12.1 12.2 17.6 21.0 23.0 18.9 27.2 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 74.0 73.0 76.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 N N N N U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 24.0 N N N N F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%