Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240526 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 121.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 13.2 16.4 21.5 21.7 25.4 23.6 27.2 F F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 89.0 68.0 120.0 70.0 71.0 10.0 18.0 U F N F N N U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 96.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 40.0 36.0 35.0 44.0 88.0 63.0 72.0 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 82.0 81.0 76.0 55.0 N N F F F F F U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 7.0 15.0 12.0 27.0 29.0 17.0 N N N U U VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.7% 45.6% 45.2% 25kt / 24h 71.7% 85.3% 78.5% 30kt / 24h 60.8% 82.9% 71.9% 35kt / 24h 55.5% 82.9% 69.2% 40kt / 24h 37.4% 81.2% 59.3% 45kt / 36h 58.9% 85.6% 72.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 77.7% 38.8% 55kt / 48h 51.0% 65.3% 58.2% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 50.1% 37.5% 65kt / 72h 27.2% 36.6% 31.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.64 WP012024 240526 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 121.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.8 13.2 16.4 21.5 21.7 25.4 23.6 27.2 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 82.0 81.0 76.0 55.0 N N U U U U U F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 7.0 15.0 12.0 27.0 29.0 17.0 N N N F F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%