Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240526 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 121.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 19.2 22.7 22.8 24.7 22.0 29.6 35.2 F N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 57.0 106.0 131.0 67.0 68.0 35.0 9.0 U N F VF N N U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 93.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 33.0 40.0 82.0 86.0 134.0 40.0 59.0 N N N N F VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 75.0 77.0 79.0 79.0 69.0 52.0 N N F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 13.0 17.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 20.0 N N U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 36.5% 34.6% 35.5% 25kt / 24h 64.7% 77.1% 70.9% 30kt / 24h 55.0% 71.9% 63.5% 35kt / 24h 55.0% 71.9% 63.5% 40kt / 24h 26.5% 70.9% 48.7% 45kt / 36h 49.5% 71.9% 60.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 55.7% 27.9% 55kt / 48h 45.9% 53.3% 49.6% 70kt / 48h 24.6% 32.4% 28.5% 65kt / 72h 24.2% 21.5% 22.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.56 WP012024 240526 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 121.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 19.2 22.7 22.8 24.7 22.0 29.6 35.2 U N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 75.0 77.0 79.0 79.0 69.0 52.0 N N U U U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 13.0 17.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 20.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%