Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240526 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 122.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 27.3 26.9 25.0 26.7 21.8 26.8 45.1 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 113.0 131.0 94.0 59.0 67.0 9.0 3.0 N F VF F N N U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 84.6 52.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 34.0 58.0 79.0 119.0 58.0 81.0 28.0 N N N N F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 78.0 79.0 79.0 73.0 59.0 53.0 N N F F F N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 27.0 23.0 13.0 26.0 N U U U VU VU U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.7% 35.5% 54.1% 25kt / 24h 73.7% 63.8% 68.7% 30kt / 24h 73.7% 58.3% 66.0% 35kt / 24h 67.6% 58.3% 63.0% 40kt / 24h 64.2% 58.3% 61.3% 45kt / 36h 56.0% 33.5% 44.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.3% 7.6% 55kt / 48h 29.9% 23.6% 26.7% 70kt / 48h 16.5% 5.3% 10.9% 65kt / 72h 6.6% 2.6% 4.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 WP012024 240526 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 122.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 27.3 26.9 25.0 26.7 21.8 26.8 45.1 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 78.0 79.0 79.0 73.0 59.0 53.0 N N U U U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 27.0 23.0 13.0 26.0 N F F F VF VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%