Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  17.1  20.9  25.0  25.8  21.1  33.7  38.5  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 129.0  90.0  62.0  77.0   8.0  17.0   0.0  F VF  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  63.6  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  51.0  42.0  57.0  85.0  24.0 135.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  F  U VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  68.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  19.0  29.0  29.0  14.0  11.0  13.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.1%       40.9%       59.0%
 25kt / 24h       73.2%       61.4%       67.3%
 30kt / 24h       73.2%       54.4%       63.8%
 35kt / 24h       73.2%       54.4%       63.8%
 40kt / 24h       73.2%       54.4%       63.8%
 45kt / 36h       75.5%       37.0%       56.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.1%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       29.4%       16.8%       23.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 WP012024 240526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  17.1  20.9  25.0  25.8  21.1  33.7  38.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  68.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  19.0  29.0  29.0  14.0  11.0  13.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%