Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240527 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 123.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 25.5 30.3 23.5 27.1 40.8 46.2 45.1 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 105.0 65.0 56.0 76.0 13.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 F N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 62.3 21.5 0.9 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 88.0 111.0 107.0 48.0 57.0 9.0 38.0 N F F F N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 82.0 81.0 65.0 51.0 51.0 54.0 F F F F N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 14.0 22.0 24.0 18.0 18.0 11.0 6.0 U U VU VU VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 38.6% 12.4% 25.5% 25kt / 24h 37.9% 27.7% 32.8% 30kt / 24h 34.4% 17.5% 25.9% 35kt / 24h 34.4% 17.5% 25.9% 40kt / 24h 34.4% 17.5% 25.9% 45kt / 36h 53.3% 12.2% 32.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.1% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 4.8% 2.2% 3.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.00 WP012024 240527 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 123.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 25.5 30.3 23.5 27.1 40.8 46.2 45.1 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 82.0 81.0 65.0 51.0 51.0 54.0 U U U U N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 14.0 22.0 24.0 18.0 18.0 11.0 6.0 F F VF VF VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6%