Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240527 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 34.8 27.2 25.3 32.8 54.5 47.4 55.6 N U N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 56.0 67.0 74.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 59.4 19.2 0.9 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 78.0 98.0 83.0 52.0 25.0 29.0 31.0 N N F N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 79.0 77.0 73.0 55.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 F F F N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 30.0 26.0 22.0 14.0 35.0 24.0 34.0 U VU VU VU U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.2% 1.8% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 9.1% 8.8% 8.9% 30kt / 24h 6.8% 4.3% 5.5% 35kt / 24h 5.2% 4.1% 4.7% 40kt / 24h 5.2% 4.1% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 11.7% 1.6% 6.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.86 WP012024 240527 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 123.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 34.8 27.2 25.3 32.8 54.5 47.4 55.6 N F N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 79.0 77.0 73.0 55.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 U U U N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 30.0 26.0 22.0 14.0 35.0 24.0 34.0 F VF VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.1% 1.8% 1.5%