Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240527 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  14.3  16.6  28.1  37.1  41.7  38.6  51.3  N  F  F  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  68.0  72.0  22.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  75.1  46.0  28.0  14.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 105.0  75.0  88.0 113.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  72.0  61.0  48.0  49.0  57.0  61.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0  11.0   8.0  11.0  22.0  35.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        3.0%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       15.0%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        8.9%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        8.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%        8.7%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%        1.7%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP012024 240527 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  14.3  16.6  28.1  37.1  41.7  38.6  51.3  N  U  N  N  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  72.0  61.0  48.0  49.0  57.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  12.0  11.0   8.0  11.0  22.0  35.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%