Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240528 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  17.5  26.9  25.4  46.7  41.1  49.5  49.3  N  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  80.0  46.0  13.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  75.7  41.5  23.2   8.3  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0  95.0  39.0  52.0  37.0  33.0  -1.0  38.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  65.0  57.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  59.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  12.0  17.0  13.0  27.0  21.0  33.0  26.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        3.9%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       15.8%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%        9.2%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        9.2%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%        9.2%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%        1.4%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP012024 240528 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  17.5  26.9  25.4  46.7  41.1  49.5  49.3  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  65.0  57.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  59.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  12.0  17.0  13.0  27.0  21.0  33.0  26.0 VF  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%