Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  24.4  29.4  38.3  48.7  49.4  57.5  60.8  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  27.0   9.0  13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  87.3  52.7  29.3  16.8   4.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  41.0  74.0  97.0  46.0  19.0  63.0  77.0  F  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  61.0  71.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   2.0  11.0  15.0  17.0  34.0  29.0  31.0  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.8%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%        9.4%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        4.8%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        4.8%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP012024 240528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  24.4  29.4  38.3  48.7  49.4  57.5  60.8  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  61.0  71.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   2.0  11.0  15.0  17.0  34.0  29.0  31.0  F  N  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%