Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240528 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 128.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 33.2 43.3 53.8 47.3 52.7 64.8 70.0 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 11.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 97.0 81.5 59.3 34.3 20.9 9.7 -0.9 N N N U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 61.0 55.0 51.0 13.0 20.0 33.0 89.0 U N N N U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 54.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 58.0 74.0 76.0 N U U VU U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 16.0 22.0 28.0 26.0 18.0 34.0 11.0 N U VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.10 WP012024 240528 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 128.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 33.2 43.3 53.8 47.3 52.7 64.8 70.0 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 54.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 58.0 74.0 76.0 N F F VF F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 16.0 22.0 28.0 26.0 18.0 34.0 11.0 N F VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.1% 2.1% 5.6%