Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240528 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 129.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.8 37.5 50.0 52.0 53.5 54.7 64.1 80.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 75.7 58.0 43.0 23.2 14.7 1.9 -19.4 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 67.0 78.0 59.0 36.0 49.0 96.0 85.0 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 55.0 69.0 77.0 74.0 N U U U U N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 21.0 28.0 25.0 35.0 35.0 71.0 36.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.9% 2.4% 4.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 WP012024 240528 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 129.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.8 37.5 50.0 52.0 53.5 54.7 64.1 80.8 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 55.0 69.0 77.0 74.0 N F F F F N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 21.0 28.0 25.0 35.0 35.0 71.0 36.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 23.9% 4.8% 14.3%