Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240529 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.9 50.9 50.7 54.0 64.9 82.2 89.1 92.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.6 48.0 42.9 20.0 14.7 0.5 -13.2 -18.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 32.0 -17.0 28.0 56.0 62.0 120.0 109.0 N N U U N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 51.0 53.0 56.0 66.0 76.0 66.0 55.0 U U U U N F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 24.0 39.0 35.0 38.0 23.0 41.0 -59.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.16 WP012024 240529 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.40 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.