Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240529 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.0 51.0 52.3 54.7 72.8 90.2 100.9 102.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.4 49.2 42.0 30.0 17.1 0.3 -10.4 -13.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 4.0 48.0 67.0 95.0 112.0 123.0 43.0 N U N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 69.0 68.0 49.0 49.0 U U N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 40.0 37.0 14.0 90.0 -12.0 -49.0 -38.0 VU VU VU U VU F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.82 WP012024 240529 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.