Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240530 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.7 52.9 54.6 62.7 78.7 92.6 98.5 117.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 52.9 48.2 35.0 30.8 8.9 -3.2 -6.5 -9.3 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 44.0 73.0 83.0 100.0 87.0 80.0 37.0 U N N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 64.0 66.0 71.0 65.0 55.0 50.0 U N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 43.0 35.0 16.0 25.0 41.0 -12.0 11.0 -40.0 VU VU U VU VU F U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.14 WP012024 240530 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.