Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240530 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.6  55.0  60.0  68.7  87.4  98.7 114.4 109.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.8  35.0  28.4  25.4   8.1  -2.7  -6.1  -6.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  44.0  43.0  83.0  83.0  70.0  53.0  36.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  67.0  72.0  70.0  76.0  67.0  55.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0   5.0  37.0  41.0  15.0  -6.0 -27.0 -77.0 VU  N VU VU  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.30

 WP012024 240530 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.