Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012024 240531 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 139.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 71.1 80.1 90.9 95.5 109.1 113.5 118.0 118.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 29.7 20.1 8.4 2.7 -1.2 -4.5 -4.8 -4.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 95.0 74.0 82.0 108.0 64.0 34.0 29.0 29.0 F N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 74.0 70.0 57.0 54.0 49.0 49.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 42.0 24.0 22.0 24.0 -23.0 -50.0 -81.0 -81.0 VU VU VU VU VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.42 WP012024 240531 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 139.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.