Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022024 240531 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 112.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 28.6 26.8 24.7 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.9 111.6 93.0 76.7 55.8 55.8 55.8 55.8 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 68.0 50.0 62.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 81.0 83.0 83.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -5.0 -1.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 F N F N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 WP022024 240531 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 112.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.