Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022024 240531 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  25.5  25.5  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  72.9  60.7  50.8  50.8  50.8  50.8  50.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  33.0  27.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  N VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.92

 WP022024 240531 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.