Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022024 240601 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 112.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 29.1 30.9 30.5 35.6 31.4 33.9 36.9 N N U N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.0 48.0 10.0 U U U U U U N U Potential [kt] 76.7 66.7 61.8 57.4 87.2 140.0 140.0 111.6 U U U U N F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 -1.0 -6.0 18.0 -46.0 -2.0 -30.0 -35.0 N U U U VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 75.0 73.0 70.0 64.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 12.0 15.0 14.0 -9.0 -12.0 -22.0 -18.0 N U U U F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.16 WP022024 240601 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 112.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.