Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022024 240601 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 112.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 30.2 35.6 37.3 35.9 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 22.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 62.4 58.4 56.2 84.2 142.0 139.6 122.4 U U U U N F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 44.0 55.0 59.0 24.0 22.0 6.0 35.0 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 78.0 74.0 75.0 71.0 64.0 62.0 F F F N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 -3.0 -11.0 -10.0 0.0 N U U U N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.22 WP022024 240601 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 112.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.