Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042024 240721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.5  26.5  30.1  32.1  41.2  43.3  55.5  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  67.0  39.0   1.0  50.0  96.0  63.0  27.0  N  N  U  U  N  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  25.0  -7.0   7.0 -28.0  12.0   2.0 -33.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   9.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%       21.3%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        9.5%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        8.7%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        8.7%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       17.6%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        5.7%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.0%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP042024 240721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.5  26.5  30.1  32.1  41.2  43.3  55.5  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   9.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%