Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042024 240721 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 17.0 28.9 31.7 38.9 36.3 49.7 51.5 F F N U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 16.0 33.0 42.0 93.0 12.0 22.0 16.0 U U U N F U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 11.0 -3.0 1.0 -9.0 11.0 9.0 -34.0 N U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 71.0 70.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 3.1% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 4.3% 17.5% 10.9% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 8.2% 5.0% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 7.3% 4.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 7.3% 3.7% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 14.3% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.6% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 5.3% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 2.3% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.02 WP042024 240721 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 17.0 28.9 31.7 38.9 36.3 49.7 51.5 U N N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 71.0 70.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%