Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042024 240721 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 110.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 25.7 27.6 29.3 40.6 43.0 54.2 42.1 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 32.0 5.0 82.0 65.0 36.0 29.0 17.0 U U U N N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -18.0 -34.0 -52.0 -9.0 5.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -8.0 4.0 -2.0 6.0 F N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 4.4% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 4.8% 19.5% 12.2% 30kt / 24h 3.5% 9.8% 6.7% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 9.5% 6.0% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 9.5% 5.2% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 12.7% 7.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 3.4% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.08 WP042024 240721 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 110.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 25.7 27.6 29.3 40.6 43.0 54.2 42.1 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -8.0 4.0 -2.0 6.0 U N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%