Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042024 240721 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 28.5 23.9 32.4 47.5 45.2 43.6 47.3 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 86.0 92.0 46.0 21.0 15.0 24.0 40.0 U N F N U U U N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 100.7 114.3 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 16.0 5.0 -3.0 8.0 16.0 45.0 47.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 62.0 57.0 56.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -2.0 -3.0 5.0 0.0 8.0 24.0 F F N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 25kt / 24h 20.3% 39.7% 30.0% 30kt / 24h 16.1% 26.3% 21.2% 35kt / 24h 12.0% 26.3% 19.2% 40kt / 24h 7.9% 26.2% 17.1% 45kt / 36h 5.9% 16.7% 11.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.9% 3.0% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 3.1% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.18 WP042024 240721 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 28.5 23.9 32.4 47.5 45.2 43.6 47.3 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 62.0 57.0 56.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -2.0 -3.0 5.0 0.0 8.0 24.0 U U N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%