Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042024 240722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  27.3  39.4  42.6  48.5  55.7  45.3  43.6  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  97.0  40.0  26.0  14.0   0.0  39.0  39.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7 101.5 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  -4.0 -24.0 -32.0 -20.0 -18.0  -9.0  15.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  -3.0  -1.0   9.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.5%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       13.3%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        6.6%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        6.0%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.6%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.22

 WP042024 240722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  27.3  39.4  42.6  48.5  55.7  45.3  43.6  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0  -3.0  -1.0   9.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%