Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042024 240722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  35.5  38.3  37.9  47.6  47.8  47.8  47.8  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  74.0  18.0  24.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -52.0   4.0 -21.0 -12.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0  U VU  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        6.8%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       16.7%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%        8.9%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%        8.7%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        8.5%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 WP042024 240722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  35.5  38.3  37.9  47.6  47.8  47.8  47.8  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%