Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042024 240722 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 41.3 37.6 40.3 52.0 40.3 40.3 40.3 U VU U U VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 12.0 26.0 14.0 1.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 88.6 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -26.0 -2.0 -12.0 17.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 F N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.5% 5.2% 8.8% 25kt / 24h 7.6% 12.7% 10.2% 30kt / 24h 7.6% 6.5% 7.1% 35kt / 24h 7.6% 6.5% 7.1% 40kt / 24h 1.9% 6.5% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP042024 240722 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 108.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 41.3 37.6 40.3 52.0 40.3 40.3 40.3 F VF F F VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 U N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%