Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042024 240722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  37.7  39.5  45.9  49.7  43.2  43.2  43.2 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0  21.0  12.0  17.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  93.6  95.7  95.7  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -21.0  -8.0  -7.0 -17.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP042024 240722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  37.7  39.5  45.9  49.7  43.2  43.2  43.2 VF  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%