Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042024 240723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  38.6  45.3  47.4  41.7  45.5  45.5  45.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   9.0  18.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 117.0 112.3 107.9 107.9 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -25.0  14.0  22.0 -25.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 WP042024 240723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  38.6  45.3  47.4  41.7  45.5  45.5  45.5  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%