Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.5  20.4  28.6  25.3  23.4  24.1  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0 100.0 103.0 106.0 110.0 113.0 109.0 125.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  62.0  62.0  84.0  87.0  71.0  99.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%        8.3%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       33.0%       47.4%       40.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       30.3%       24.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.4%       29.3%       21.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       28.3%       15.6%
 45kt / 36h       30.0%       46.0%       38.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.9%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       47.3%       34.2%       40.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       20.3%       22.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       49.9%       55.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 WP052024 240721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.5  20.4  28.6  25.3  23.4  24.1  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  80.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%