Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  26.3  28.1  27.7  23.5  20.1  20.7  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0 100.0 101.0 104.0 108.0 110.0 122.0 118.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  62.0  84.0 125.0 115.0 118.0  64.0  86.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0 -13.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.6%       10.2%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       41.4%       47.1%       44.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.5%       28.4%       27.0%
 35kt / 24h       19.3%       28.2%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       28.2%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       38.6%       45.4%       42.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.5%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       36.7%       43.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       22.5%       23.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       50.6%       56.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.54

 WP052024 240721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  26.3  28.1  27.7  23.5  20.1  20.7  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0 -13.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%