Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052024 240721 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 28.3 26.0 26.0 25.9 16.7 26.0 24.2 N N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 99.0 100.0 102.0 105.0 108.0 116.0 115.0 96.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 92.0 119.0 128.0 124.0 71.0 40.0 40.0 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 81.0 82.0 79.0 79.0 82.0 79.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 -1.0 4.0 12.0 -10.0 -7.0 -4.0 N N N N U F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.9% 4.2% 5.6% 25kt / 24h 27.4% 31.0% 29.2% 30kt / 24h 16.3% 14.7% 15.5% 35kt / 24h 9.2% 14.2% 11.7% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 14.2% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 29.4% 24.8% 27.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.7% 3.8% 55kt / 48h 44.5% 23.8% 34.1% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 10.3% 17.5% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 32.6% 47.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.56 WP052024 240721 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 28.3 26.0 26.0 25.9 16.7 26.0 24.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 81.0 82.0 79.0 79.0 82.0 79.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 -1.0 4.0 12.0 -10.0 -7.0 -4.0 N N N N F U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%