Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052024 240721 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 25.1 23.1 22.2 17.0 17.7 27.4 27.7 N N N N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 99.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 106.0 123.0 120.0 99.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 96.0 104.0 108.0 107.0 104.0 38.0 17.0 70.0 F F F F F N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 80.0 80.0 78.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 -6.0 -8.0 -13.0 N N N N N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 22.4% 15.4% 18.9% 25kt / 24h 61.9% 65.4% 63.6% 30kt / 24h 41.8% 51.4% 46.6% 35kt / 24h 33.3% 51.4% 42.4% 40kt / 24h 17.3% 49.6% 33.4% 45kt / 36h 52.0% 62.0% 57.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 38.1% 19.0% 55kt / 48h 51.3% 53.7% 52.5% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 35.3% 30.1% 65kt / 72h 61.3% 52.6% 56.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.60 WP052024 240721 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 25.1 23.1 22.2 17.0 17.7 27.4 27.7 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 82.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 80.0 80.0 78.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 -6.0 -8.0 -13.0 N N N N N U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%