Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052024 240722 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 125.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 28.0 19.5 17.4 13.3 24.7 29.5 37.9 N N N F F N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 100.0 101.0 103.0 123.0 122.0 71.0 69.0 F F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 148.0 149.0 117.0 120.0 99.0 61.0 20.0 46.0 VF VF F F F N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 77.0 80.0 74.0 73.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 -21.0 N N N N N F N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.0% 3.2% 3.6% 25kt / 24h 35.9% 39.0% 37.4% 30kt / 24h 16.5% 21.4% 18.9% 35kt / 24h 7.4% 20.1% 13.8% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 20.1% 12.2% 45kt / 36h 37.9% 37.6% 37.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.2% 7.6% 55kt / 48h 50.8% 35.5% 43.2% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 16.1% 20.4% 65kt / 72h 60.9% 31.4% 46.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.76 WP052024 240722 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 125.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 28.0 19.5 17.4 13.3 24.7 29.5 37.9 N N N N U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 77.0 80.0 74.0 73.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 -21.0 N N N N N U N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%