Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052024 240722 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 125.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 19.5 15.1 13.5 25.3 33.0 40.0 27.9 N N F F N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 105.0 106.0 114.0 124.0 118.0 45.0 31.0 28.0 F F F F F N U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 143.0 101.0 81.0 64.0 72.0 20.0 22.0 0.0 VF F N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 78.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 74.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 4.0 -8.0 -7.0 -10.0 -24.0 -16.0 F F N F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.5% 29.8% 37.2% 25kt / 24h 81.7% 83.3% 82.5% 30kt / 24h 71.4% 79.1% 75.3% 35kt / 24h 65.9% 79.1% 72.5% 40kt / 24h 33.8% 77.5% 55.6% 45kt / 36h 71.1% 73.7% 72.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 56.1% 28.1% 55kt / 48h 51.2% 51.9% 51.5% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 33.6% 29.2% 65kt / 72h 20.8% 25.3% 23.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.90 WP052024 240722 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 125.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 19.5 15.1 13.5 25.3 33.0 40.0 27.9 N N U U N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 78.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 74.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 4.0 -8.0 -7.0 -10.0 -24.0 -16.0 U U N U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%