Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  17.0  17.1  17.8  28.3  37.4  34.7  33.8  N  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 113.0 120.0 111.0  81.0  73.0  37.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  76.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 117.0  84.0   7.0  50.0  24.0  10.0  30.0  F  F  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  -9.0 -10.0 -11.0 -19.0 -21.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.2%       54.3%       65.8%
 25kt / 24h       94.3%       89.8%       92.0%
 30kt / 24h       93.1%       89.8%       91.4%
 35kt / 24h       93.1%       89.8%       91.4%
 40kt / 24h       64.2%       88.4%       76.3%
 45kt / 36h       79.6%       76.3%       77.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       61.2%       30.6%
 55kt / 48h       48.3%       45.6%       46.9%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       25.0%       23.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.0%       15.1%       11.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.00

 WP052024 240722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  17.0  17.1  17.8  28.3  37.4  34.7  33.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   2.0  -9.0 -10.0 -11.0 -19.0 -21.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%