Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052024 240723 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 16.5 18.3 21.1 28.6 41.3 28.6 26.3 F F F N N VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 121.0 123.0 124.0 99.0 21.0 31.0 16.0 0.0 F F F F U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 80.1 37.2 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 80.0 29.0 60.0 30.0 18.0 4.0 -2.0 F N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 75.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 77.0 83.0 F N F N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 -21.0 -8.0 -9.0 -38.0 -14.0 -3.0 N N VF F F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 86.1% 67.4% 76.8% 25kt / 24h 96.8% 91.6% 94.2% 30kt / 24h 96.8% 91.6% 94.2% 35kt / 24h 96.8% 91.6% 94.2% 40kt / 24h 72.3% 90.6% 81.4% 45kt / 36h 74.3% 69.7% 72.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 53.4% 26.7% 55kt / 48h 34.6% 35.9% 35.2% 70kt / 48h 10.9% 16.8% 13.8% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 8.4% 5.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.86 WP052024 240723 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 16.5 18.3 21.1 28.6 41.3 28.6 26.3 N N N N N VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 75.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 77.0 83.0 U N U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 -21.0 -8.0 -9.0 -38.0 -14.0 -3.0 N N VU U U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%