Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.0  18.3  27.1  41.5  38.6  18.3  21.1  F  F  F  N VU  U  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  123.0 123.0 121.0  89.0   7.0  32.0  28.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  24.0  83.0  37.0  24.0  62.0  14.0  25.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  77.0  75.0  77.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0   0.0 -14.0 -19.0 -24.0 -14.0  -3.0  F  F  N VF VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       88.7%       69.7%       79.2%
 25kt / 24h       93.3%       84.9%       89.1%
 30kt / 24h       93.3%       84.9%       89.1%
 35kt / 24h       93.3%       84.9%       89.1%
 40kt / 24h       58.9%       83.1%       71.0%
 45kt / 36h       80.6%       55.2%       67.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.2%       19.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.5%       13.3%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.84

 WP052024 240723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.0  18.3  27.1  41.5  38.6  18.3  21.1  U  U  N  N VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  77.0  75.0  77.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0   0.0 -14.0 -19.0 -24.0 -14.0  -3.0  U  U  N VU VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%