Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.5  30.5  26.3  33.8  27.2  32.5  21.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  124.0 108.0  69.0  38.0  34.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  55.7   0.9  -8.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  83.0  70.0  25.0  46.0  31.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -8.0 -10.0  -7.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.8%       44.3%       59.0%
 25kt / 24h       65.1%       59.1%       62.1%
 30kt / 24h       60.0%       54.5%       57.3%
 35kt / 24h       60.0%       54.5%       57.3%
 40kt / 24h       33.0%       51.3%       42.1%
 45kt / 36h       68.1%       31.7%       49.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%        6.2%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.68

 WP052024 240723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    124.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.5  30.5  26.3  33.8  27.2  32.5  21.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -8.0 -10.0  -7.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%