Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.6  37.5  34.0  22.5  21.7  11.0  13.7  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  44.0  65.0  33.0  28.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 -13.3   7.7  45.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  17.0  47.0  68.0  28.0  23.0  28.0  32.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0 -15.0 -25.0 -14.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  F  N VF VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.9%       12.9%       32.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.5%       12.3%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%        7.1%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%        7.1%       11.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 WP052024 240724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.6  37.5  34.0  22.5  21.7  11.0  13.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0 -15.0 -25.0 -14.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  U  N VU VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%