Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  32.2  33.0  26.5  22.3  21.0  17.1  15.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  25.0  36.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0   6.5 -11.8  26.6  17.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  45.0  42.0  26.0  38.0  18.0  -4.0  27.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  69.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -20.0 -15.0 -14.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   6.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP052024 240724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  32.2  33.0  26.5  22.3  21.0  17.1  15.8  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  69.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -20.0 -15.0 -14.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   6.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        9.0%        4.7%