Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  32.3  22.8  20.5  12.0  13.4  12.0  21.8  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0   4.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  51.5  29.3  70.0  20.0  -3.3  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  18.0  23.0   5.0  54.0 -11.0  19.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  86.0  82.0  81.0  85.0  87.0  84.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -30.0  -2.0 -24.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  -8.0 VF VF  N VF  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP052024 240724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  32.3  22.8  20.5  12.0  13.4  12.0  21.8  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  86.0  82.0  81.0  85.0  87.0  84.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -30.0  -2.0 -24.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  -8.0 VU VU  N VU  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%