Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  29.2  23.0  17.7  16.4  11.4  11.4  11.4  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  71.5  40.0  25.5  73.6  82.3  82.3  82.3  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  29.0  54.0  25.0  12.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -16.0 -24.0  -8.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VF VF VF  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 WP052024 240725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.