Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  27.4  19.9  13.8  24.0  16.5  16.5  16.5  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   6.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.4  76.6  76.6  64.3  97.3  82.4  82.4  82.4  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  56.0  65.0  91.0  15.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -24.0 -21.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   5.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 WP052024 240725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.