Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.0   6.5  10.4  11.3  18.7  22.2  24.8  28.6  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  39.0  37.0  18.0  30.0  10.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1  84.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  32.0  48.0  71.0  59.0  76.0  82.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  68.0  62.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        8.8%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       57.5%       39.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       39.6%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       38.3%       24.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       38.3%       19.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.3%       71.0%       46.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.0%       27.0%
 55kt / 48h       39.9%       51.0%       45.4%
 70kt / 48h       21.7%       46.3%       34.0%
 65kt / 72h       34.8%       43.3%       39.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 WP062024 240807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.0   6.5  10.4  11.3  18.7  22.2  24.8  28.6  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  68.0  62.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%