Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.3  14.4  17.0   9.3  14.0  13.1  18.1  26.5 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  38.0  33.0  20.0  15.0  25.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 108.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  13.0  53.0  69.0  -5.0  63.0 -19.0 -37.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  10.0  12.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        4.4%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       39.9%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       21.8%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       20.8%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       20.8%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       15.0%       57.1%       36.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.5%       18.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       42.7%       38.0%
 70kt / 48h       18.0%       36.2%       27.1%
 65kt / 72h       24.9%       40.6%       32.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.38

 WP062024 240807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.3  14.4  17.0   9.3  14.0  13.1  18.1  26.5 VU  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  10.0  12.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%